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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Spurs are far from a dominant team. They are a good team and a deserving favorite but hardly unbeatable. The x factor is of course Duncan. Cleveland has a matchup problem there because Duncan can step back and shoot that little bank shot that most big men cant. Parker must be controlled and with Hughes hobbling and Gibson's defense suspect he can be a problem also. LeBron certainly will be a problem for the Spurs because Bowen is overmatched and will be in foul trouble early which forces SA to double. The reason why NBA teams dont double much is it leaves guys wide open and even average players like Gooden can hit wide open 15 footers all night. What SA has that Detroit lacked is poise. Cleveland has virtually no experienced playoff hardend guys with the exception of Snow who is too much of an offensive liability (sorry Morty/Hal) to play more than a few minutes. Clveland will need to dominate the boards and limit SA's second chance points to win games. They must also limit the secondary break and keep Finley and Ginobilli from getting out in transition where they excel. Cleveland must try to turn the games into physical, grinding games because they dont have the transition type players that can keep up with SA. I think SA will win the series but I dont think it will be easy.
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I agree with most of this. When the Spurs beat the Knicks in 1999, I knew there was no way for the Knicks to score against Robinson and Duncan. This was a far more dominant team than this Spurs team.
I knew the Spurs would have very little difficulty with the Nets in 2003. Detroit in 2005, we took it from them in the last 4 minutes of game 7. It was Detroit's series and we took it from them.
The point not mentioned above is that the Spurs are much quicker on Defense than Detroit. Much more. Passing lanes that were open against Detroit for Lebron will close up much quicker. Cleveland knows this. Brown knows this. Another factor is the Spurs are much longer than Detroit inside. Elson, Horry, and Duncan are all very long armed. They can block shots without having to time a jump. Horry is especially valuable in this respect.
If Cleveland makes too many turnovers, they will get blown out because the Spurs have much more speed on the break than Detroit. If Cleveland gets this thing halfcourt without making turnovers, we will have a series. If Parker and Ginobili play well in either case, the Spurs will roll. If Parker drives and hits the 17 foot jumper consistently, and Ginobili hits his 3's and plays his instinctive defense, its the Spurs easily.
Anyways I am happy the city of Cleveland has some relief from their depressing run. This city loves their teams. Very loyal group.
And of course if I make it up to Saratoga if Sumwon runs, I will bring everyone Spurs hats as I know they will be thrilled to wear such attire.