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Originally Posted by Antitrust32
Just going off pedigree (I got these #'s from pedigree query)-
I am just wondering why everyone seems to think hard spun will have no problem with 12 f and is bred for it.
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Hard Spun has without a doubt the best distance pedigree of any colt in the race. You can't go by dosage. Even the creator of the system says its tremendously flawed.
So here is the case for Hard Spun. His sire (Danig) sired a Preakness winner (Pine Bluff) and a Belmont winner (Danig Connection).
Far more important than that however is Hard Spun's dam-side pedigree, which is generally considered the more important side of a horse's pedigree in terms of distance. Look at the stallions in the three key positions of Hard Spun's dam-side pedigree. They are Turkoman, Alydar, and Roberto. Two of those three were multiple G1 winners at 10f and the other was a multiple G1 winner at 12f. They have all sired their share of routers as well. You can't ask for much better than that.
Now, pedigree certainly DOES matter in the Belmont. It probably matters more in this race than any other race run all year. It is important to use it as only ONE tool however. DrugS is spot on with what he says about Hard Spun. He has a great pedigree for this race, but his form will probably still prevent him from being effective at this distance. The colt doesn't seem able to relax. That trumps pedigree. The key is to find a horse that has a pedigree and (more importantly) a running style that will allow him (or perhaps this year....her) to be effective at this distance.