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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Well stated, DrugS
In track (bike) racing, the rider who can push the bigger gear has a huge advantage. While he can go faster than the other cyclists while spinning less RPMs, he also needs to be stronger and have more stamina in order to push the bigger gear. Given enough distance of ground, and assuming an UNobstructed path, this rider will always win. The others might spin smoother and quicker than he can but in the long run he'll be going the fastest. Simple physics.
And that's exactly what happened in the Preakness. Curlin took a long time to get into gear. Despite lagging early, a needlessly wide trip, and taking longer to change in the lane than the others, when he finally got that big gear moving, it was all over. That was a TURF TYPE late move on the dirt.
Now, how does this horse lose in the Belmont? There won't be a 20 horse obstacle course (like the Derby). Hard Spun can go as slow or as fast as he wants. If he goes too fast, he's cooked. If he goes too slow, when it comes time to sprint in the lane, he can't match the bigger gear pusher.
Simple as that.
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Doesn't this assume that all the horses/bikers are travelling at a constant velocity?
Does this still work if Hard Spun gets a soft pace and essentially gets a "head start" on Curlin?