Just going off pedigree (I got these #'s from pedigree query)-
I am just wondering why everyone seems to think hard spun will have no problem with 12 f and is bred for it. Danzig is more known for sprinters I thought. His DI is 2.67 and his CD is .66. According to
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/review.htm those numbers would make him most effective at 9 - 9 1/2 furlongs, which would compliment his run in the Derby. I dont understand how that makes him great for 12 f.
I'll go through the other horses-
Curlin DI 4.00 and CD 1.05 - bred for 6 - 7 furlongs
Rags to Riches - DI 3.00 CD .86 - bred for 7 to 9 furlongs
I'mawildncrazyguy - DI 6.00 and CD1.07 - bred for short sprints!
Tiago - DI 1.91 CD .31 - bred for 12 furlongs and beyond
Slews Tizzy - DI 2.00 CD . 67 - bred 9 - 12 furlongs
Digger - DI 4.33 CD 1.00 - Bred for eating and pooping
Time Squared - DI 3.25 CD .91 - bred for around a mile
Circular Quay - DI 2.08 CD .66 - bred 9-12 furlongs (probably wont run)
So if you are going off only pedigree, Tiago and Slews Tizzy are your guys (may want to keep them in your exotics). Granted horses dont run to their pedigree always (Curlin), but I wouldnt say Hard Spun is a lock at 12f.
I'll go through the past 10 Belmont winners and their pedigree for distance, maybe we can put things together.
Jazil - DI = 3.00 CD = 0.89 Bred for 8 - 9 furlongs
Afleet Alex - DI = 2.11 CD = 0.71 Bred for 11 furlongs
Birdstone - DI = 1.77 CD = 0.33 Bred for 12 and beyond
Empire Maker - DI = 1.88 CD = 0.42 bred for 12 and beyond
Sarava - DI = 4.50 CD = 1.00 Bred for sprints
Point Given - DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Bred for 9 furlongs or shorter
Commendable - DI = 5.00 CD = 1.07 Bred for quarter horse races
Lemon Drop Kid - DI = 2.62 CD = 0.79 Bred for 10 furlongs
Victory Gallop - DI = 3.27 CD = 0.81 Bred for a mile and 70
Touch Gold - DI = 1.82 CD = 0.46 Bred for 12 furlongs
So of the past 10 years, 1/2 of the horses were bred for 10 f or beyond.
I guess this means that pedigree really has nothing to do with the Belmont!