[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Kasept

G,

JB did that study last year looking to see what effect Barbaro's big Derby effort (figure) might have going forward. The information is indeed contrary to basic tenents about big figure efforts, but it is confined in application to 3yo's running negative numbers in the first half of their sophomore campaigns. Interesting to note that besides Smarty Jones, alone pairing up efforts off a negative number on short rest, the other was poor, doomed Egg Head who got sick and died after his incredible Riva Ridge battle with Lost in the Fog.

Remember that with the figs, JB & Co. are trying to anticipate the possible scenario that could result in a wagering opportunity. The decision they are trying to make is whether Street Sense's effort will indeed knock him back enough to be vulnerable. Given that there are already questions about his running style (rail, etc.) to try and find alternatives, the study suggests it is well worth trying to beat the Derby winner Saturday.

As I've maintained since last Monday, the concern I have is the previous model involving Nafzger and this odyssey: Unbridled... a mildly-threatening second in the Preakness and then a never-involved 4th in the Belmont... The focus was on the Derby with him, and the focus was on the Derby with Street Sense. As Nafzger has said, "It's up to the horse." If we believe that he is special and are happy with the way he appears to be coming into the Preakness, then there is enough to feel confident about in supporting him at the windows as a key, believing that the wheels won't come off yet...

Remember that most recent Derby winners, or big effort Derby runners, were able to sustain their form for the second effort before problems arose physically (Smarty Jones-WON; Afleet Alex-WON; FuPeg-2nd; Funny Cide-WON, then effectively knocked out for the rest of the year by the TC..).

that's why I'll wait until the Belmont to bet against SS. (if he runs)