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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
The few people I know who bet him in the BC Juvie, bet him solely off the basis of his polytrack race---where he was wide, and made a spectacular move, before hanging late.
I agree though---while I say he's never run a good figure when he hasn't had a dream trip....those races include early season 2yo sprints, or races run over either off-tracks or artifical dirt.
He very well might be capable of running an impressive figure without his trip--but, the visual aspect is what makes me lean to think he won't.
Even in the Derby, when he had that easy trip....he still did everything wrong in the very late stages of that race.
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Like I said, I don't mean to discount all of the theories about his needing the trip etc, and I too cashed a sweet double with Anna and Sense on BC Day based on how I loved his Keeneland race and thought he was the best that day.
I only intend to add another potential X Factor to the debate, that maybe while everyone is talking about his trip sealing the deal, we're all overlooking that he's never run a "poor" race over a fast conventional dirt surface. So many are just so quick to talk about the trip without adding in any other factors, this one has been sorely overlooked in Derby analysis. Sure the trip contributed, but is there another potential cause that many are willing to toss or not even acknowledge in the quest to discredit the Derby champion?