Quote:
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Originally Posted by SentToStud
I see it:
SS 1-1
HS 7/2
Curlin 4/1
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CQ 10/1
KOTR 15/1
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MJ 40/1
X 40/1
FFC 40/1
CPW 40/1
I used about 15% hold.
I don't think the Ex's of SS/HS-Curlin pay more than low teens.
SS/CQ pays $25 at most.
Ex's of HS-Curlin/SS are probably $22-$25.
Unless you can get one of the bottom tier runners to crash the Ex, it seems awful hard to make money here in the Exacta unless you have a strong positive opinion on two of the top three and a strong negative opinion on the third of that group. Tri/Supers sem worthwhile to me only with a middle placing on those tickets with one of the bottom tier runners.
I don't trust CQ enough to use him on any narrow Ex ticket. I'll look at the bottom tier horses and work out a potential ticket that way, but I'm not excited about the verticals.
Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the race.
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I think you're dead on, except for the bottom horses may be a little shorter than 40-1. TRUE odds are probably close to 40-1, they'll probably go off at closer to 20-1.