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Originally Posted by Derby73
Steve,
A couple days before the Kentucky Derby I printed off a few pages from the DT Forum and in that printing nine Derby Trailers predicted the top 5 or top 10finishers for the race. I threw out ##6-10 and gave a value of 5 points for horses picked to win, 4 for place, 3 for show, 2 for 4th and 1 for 5th and summed the total for each horse. I know it is a ridiculously simple methodology and that the sample size is absurdly small, but somehow there is wisdom in consensus. Check out the results below listed in descending order of consensus pick and showing from left right the consensus prediction, horse, horse's actual finish and difference between consensus prediction and finish in parentheses:
Predicted #1 Street Sense, Finish = Win (off by 0)
#2 Any Given Saturday, 8th (off by 6)
T#3 Hard Spun, Place (off by 1)
T#3 Curlin, Show (0)
#5 Scat Daddy, 18th (13)
#6 Nobiz, 10th (4)
#7 Tiago, 7th (0)
#8 Dominican, 11th (3)
#9 Sam P., 9th (0)
#10 Circular Quay, 6th (4)
#11 Zanjero, 12th (1)
Those were all the horses who received mention among the nine Derby Trailers from whom I had predictions. Street Sense was a strong consensus pick with 37 total points and Any Given Saturday finished second at 19. Curlin and Hard Spun were at 18.
Anyway, I thought that was pretty remarkable predicting for the gang of 9 hitting on 8 of the Top 10 finishers with only imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield not in the mix.
Rick
I'm no genius, or are I? -- Homer Simpson
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