Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
The Preakness is normally the first time almost any three year old comes back on only two weeks rest, so to say that these have never come back before on only two weeks rest doesn't mean much to me. It was the same for other Kentucky derby winners who have done well in the Preakness as you have mentioned.
Why did you not expect Barbaro, Giacomo or Smarty Jones to bounce, but you are expecting Street Sense and Hard Spun to do so? What is it about their individual situations that makes it so clear in your mind?
|
Barbaro had 5 weeks before the Derby, whereas SS only had 3 weeks.
With Smarty Jones, I got to see some footage of him training between the Derby and the Preakness and he looked great. That is the only reason that I didn't expect him to regress in the Preakness. If I didn't know how well he was doing, I would have been concerned about a possible bounce. I was actually shocked at how good he looked training between the Derby and Preakness. He had run a lot of hard races on short rest. That horse was made of steele.
With Giacomo, he had 4 weeks before the Derby. Not only that, he had been coming from behind and just picking up the pieces and hitting the board, but not winning, in his races leading up to the Derby. I wouldn't expect that to take as much out of a horse.
With Curlin, I thought they were asking a huge amount of him to run in the Derby. He'd only run 3 times and he was coming back in 3 weeks. I thought that was more than the horse could take. Now to ask him to come back in 2 weeks is really asking a lot.
None of this is an exact science. I can't tell you what will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. All I can do is make an educated guess as to what I think is asking a horse too much.
I'm not saying that I'm confident that these 3 horses won't fire. I'm just saying that all 3 of these horses are being asked for a lot under the circumstances and I think that all 3 are vulnerable to regress in the Preakness.