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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
What I meant by vulnerable is that these horses may not run nearly as well this time. If there are no other good horses in the race, then there is still a good chance that one of the favorites will win. But I only look to bet on a horse that I think is going to run a big race. If I think that there is a good chance that a horse won't fire, I'm not going to bet that horse any way and hope that his "B" or "C" game will be good enough to win.
If you think that a horse is not going to fire, I think it's dangerous to bet the horse regardless of the competition. The reason being that it is too hard to predict the extent to which a horse won't fire. Scat Daddy is a perfect example. If you thought that he wasn't going to fire in the Derby, there was still no way to know whether he would get beaten by 8 lengths or 35 lengths. He ended up getting beaten by 35 lengths.
Anyway, we all have different methods of handicapping. The first thing that I personally look for is a horse that I think will run a big race. If I don't think that a horse is going to run something near his best, I won't bet him even if the competition is sub-par.
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I don't expect Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Curlin to 'not fire". I'm expecting good efforts from all of them. None of them have shown me the type of signals that they are inconsistent, over-raced, over-the-top etc.
It's not a race that I'm interested in betting. I just don't get all the expectations of bouncing and not firing. These horses have nearly spotless records and always have shown up when the gates open.