there's been some reasonable responses here but no one has really nailed it so i guess it's up to me.
the reason you don't want to bet a late closer in the derby to win the belmont is because...
(drum roll)
"jockeys will ask the horse to run later in a 12f race than they do in a 10f race."
your late running closer will most likely still be picking up the pieces and passing tired horses for 4th in the belmont because he isn't going to be asked to run until 2f later than he was in the derby.
there it is. and you're welcome.
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