Every year a horse makes a big late move in the Derby and everyone says, "Oh my gosh that's my horse for the Belmont." The list is endless, including Menifee in '99, Impeachment in 2000, Atswhatimtalknabout in '03 (of course he never went on to run again), Imperialism in '04, and Steppenwolfer and Jazil a year ago.
The reason why these types of horses have little success in the Belmont is the very nature of the race. A mile and a quarter race, and the Derby in particular, will have a much faster pace than a mile and a half race. Now many on here are much more adept in laying out pace scenarios so I hope they comment. The slower pace of the Belmont does not make it any easier for a closer and thus the Belmont is a more difficult race for a late runner to win than the Derby is in my opinion.
Jazil won a year ago thanks to basically a four-furlong move that commenced at the entry to the far turn and continued all the way to the wire.
So, is Imawildandcrazyguy worth a shot in the Belmont? If you have reason to think the pace will be fast enough and that he can sustain a bid for more than the last quarter of a mile, then sure.
NT
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