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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I totally get your point....however, the horse has as good a distance pedigree as any male who might run in the triple crown series, and that's pretty (perhaps very) uncommon for a horse with his great natural speed.
I think he'll be fine in the Preakness.
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I look at pedigree when horses are trying something new. I could certainly understand the research as he stretched to two turns, then to 9f, then the Derby.
Now, however, this horse isn't trying anything new. The pedigree research should end when you see what the horse does in real life.
The horse has now run four routes. I give him the following pace/speed figures:
Lecomte: 109/95
Southwest: 97/95 (He did this while way wide, meaning that 97 was probably more like a 105 or so)
Blue Grass: 114/100
Kentucky Derby: 128/102
He is getting bigger pace numbers the farther he goes, which means he is not rating at all, basically runnning the same speed regardless of distance. If I made pace numbers based on actual speed rather than the distance, they would probably all be very similar.