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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Hard Spun was a bit of a puzzle for me, but at the end of the day I decided that I don't think he is a win candidate, and not all that likely to hit the board even.
three things that bother me;
1) hasn't faced top competition, in fact avoided it.
2) the only time he faced some adversity, and had to be asked for everything and dig deep down, there was not much there. yes he was on the wrong part of the track but these were not top class horses, and for a moment he worked himself into competition but then could hold his position against forty Grams, and Officer Rocket. how much fight will he have when challenged in the Derby against much tougher horses? He doesn't look like a horse that you can fool with during the race. He doesn't like to be held, and he doesn't really have a kick either if pushed. He runs his best like in the Lanes End just letting him run. In the derby I like horses that have proven themselves in battle more, that are not so one dimensional, that can be rated a little if need be, and that have something in reserve when called upon.
3) The Lanes End looked to be a fantastic race. The only thing that bothers me is that this was a career best race for Hard Spun, Sedgefield, and Joe Got Even. Why did they all move up at the same time on that day? Why did Sedgefield finish within 3 lengths of Hard Spun that day? For Sedgefield it was a huge jump, like 5 TG points, 11 point jump on Bris. In his next race he fell back to earth big time. Something is odd there and if I don't believe that the Lanes End result was truly legit, then I can't play Hard Spun because the rest of his record doesn't do it for me.
Thats my take, boy will I look dumb if he runs like so many seem to think!
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Okay, I buy some of your arguments, but judging Hard Spun's performance in the Lanes End based on what Sedgefield did in a TURF race the next time out in which he was running on 12 days rest and hung like a cheap suit is stretching it. How about the fact that Dominican ran in the race prior, and blitzed that field, yet still ran 3-4 lengths slower than Hard Spun did?
I have to believe the Lanes End was legit. He was the only Derby contender to run a :23 1st quarter and a sub :38 final 3. Plenty of these horses can do one or the other, but not both.