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Originally Posted by docicu3
I have only read a year of your stuff but excluding columns this has to be the longest post on a subject I have ever seen you leave. Either great coffee for the first two hours of a day or a real chord was struck with you on this one Steve.
I have seen you write time and time again that you don't beat this game over the long run with the 9/2 win shots. That the only way to beat this game LONG TERM is the exotics (exacta,tri's and super's) and taking advantage of the payoffs with lesser take out such as the P3 or P4 sequences. As much as I certainly agree that you should play horses you like I would also make a play for playing the types of races you like.
I happen to think that I am better off playing turf races and maiden races because the payoffs seem better and exotics are my thing. Some angles (turf breeding for one) require faith without form you can see if your betting maiden special wgt or turf routes that your keying pedegree based on stats and trainer styles of handling horses that tell you the trainer thinks he has something though the horse may never have run a turf or a route before.(Contessa the day he said "If you see me drill a day or two before a maiden race say 3F's and I let the horse blow it out I mean business") It seems that occasionally it is an angle in a race you like or look for that you key.
Haven't you over the life of your handicapping found that certain races, trainers and favorite tracks bring out the best in you Steve. It seems you murder New York tracks with the predictabilty of tax day. My guess is that has to be a comfort zone for you.
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I hear you. Turf and Maidens are gold if you can hit 'em. The first thing I look at is the breeding. Breeding gives you an idea of potential. It's pretty exciting with new sires. Every year there is someone new throwing winners at a big price. Polytrack provides another puzzle.