There is no need to wait for future results. You can just as easily use past results.
The reason the exacta is better is for a variety of reasons. One, the breakage hurts the place payoffs enough to raise the takeout to at least a couple points higher than the 15 or 16%. Another is that favorites are overbet in place pools for the most part and as they finish first or second around 50% of the time they will artificially deflate place payoffs on the other horse. But, the biggest reason is that with exactas you are effectively making a parlay of two different results, one horse to win and another to place, with a takout of roughly 20%. It's not wholly dissimilar to making a football parlay on the point spread AND the over/under while only paying the vig for one bet. So, even though the exacta takout is, say, 20% vs. 15% for place, you are effectively ( though not exactly ) lowering it to 10% on each outcome. Now, when you add on the actual increase that breakage brings to the place takeout you have a substantially better mathematical proposition.
The truth of this contest is that an aberational result which caused place bets to appear the better bet would have sent a TERRIBLE message to people. This idea that place betting is a sound strategy is flat out wrong and yet another reason people have trouble making money betting horses. The idea is to find ways to maximize one's profits or returns. Place and show betting, simply put, minimizes returns. Place and show bettors are suckers and losers at the windows.
|