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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Dave, the lack of response to your post and at least 2 similar requests of mine suggest one of two things:
1. BTWind is wrong about the mathematics, or
2. BTWind is right, but the concept is subtle enough that there is profit to be made from the betting public's misunderstanding of it, and he wishes to keep that edge to himself. (Nothing wrong with that!)
If it were almost anyone else here, I'd lean very heavily toward #1. But I respect BTWind enough to consider #2 a possibility.
I'm still working on an example that I hope will illustrate that at least in "efficient" pools, the place bet has to be better than the exacta bet for the type of comparison in this contest. Until I do that, I'm open to the possibility that BTWind could be right.
--Dunbar
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Nah, I just haven't really wrapped myself around it enough, or summoned the energy, to give a good response. I will.