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Originally Posted by easy goer
But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.
perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?
I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.
How do you view the issue?
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bernardini was fourth in his first start, i don't know much about that race, how it was run, who won it--but he certainly finished behind some horses in his debut.
as for curlin--the question remains, much like bernardini, is what will he do when he gets eyeballed? a lot of people say who knows what will happen, since he hasn't been, but what if curlin hasn't been because no one can keep up with him long enough to test him? now, after only three starts, i'm certainly not going to start with the 'he's a monster' talk (of course, i have seen that mentioned here) or he can't be tested--he's only run three times!
as to whether he's overrated due to large margins, i guess i'd rather have a horse who may be overrated due to big wins, then to have a horse suffering narrow losses, or barely eking out a win.
so, what helps you to sleep better at night if it's your horse? big win, or narrow but gutsy win?