Since I started this thread, there's been quite a few more preps. Let's take a look at the more recent ones:
Wood Memorial--this one will ruffle some feathers, and maybe I'm a bit biased because I know Nobiz is the definitive "hype" horse but if you factor ground loss in at all, Any Given Saturday arguably ran a better race. He was real wide on both turns. Nobiz did run a solid race under pressure the whole way but saved every inch of ground. But when you consider the likely odds disparity between the two horses, you have to like AGS better to be in the tri in Louisville.
Florida Derby---I wrote a thread about how I thought Beyer blew Scat Daddy's number. I originally gave him a 105 but have adjusted to 103; still 5 pts better than Beyer had it. The pace was solid and he won anyways.
Illinois Derby---this race was a product of both a crawlfest pace and a rail bias. Reporting for Duty did a very good job closing on the very slow pace, although he was hugging the rail to do it. Still, I came away more impressed by him than w/Cowtown Cat.
Ark Derby----this couldn't be more obvious. Curlin has been much the best in all three of his starts. He will be favored. Thought he was more impressive than Smarty Jones was at OP three years ago.
Blue Grass----with the incredibly slow pace, its amazing that Dominican outclosed Street Sense to win. No doubt he ran the superior race but all three of his wins are on Poly so it could be a giant leap of faith to use him at CD. But the price will still be very big and he hasn't done much wrong recently.
SA Derby---fast pace; King of the Roxy ran a very big race to do all the work and was narrowly beaten while the winner had the good pace setup.
Historically, the "best in last race" angle has been very strong and has uncovered some live longshots winners.
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