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Originally Posted by Cardus
I'm glad that you picked up on this concept. I think it is OK if his projected odds added up to 100% plus the takeout, but I like your thinking on his post. Track oddsmakers never consider this idea, which is why ML odds are somewhat useless.
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Right Cardus. The ML odds set by the track oddsmakers usually add up to well over the track takeout. For the Arkansas Derby yesterday, the morning line added to 131%, which would only be reasonable if the takeout was 24%.
I wasn't sure if Hickory Hoff was giving what he thought would be fair odds given the takout (should add to 119% for a 16% takeout), or fair odds in the absense of takeout. (should add to 100%). The more useful figure for betting purposes is a line that adds to 100%.
--Dunbar