I think people are missing part of the equation. First, it makes obvious sense to run Any Given Saturday in the Wood as that is a likely spot for him to guarantee necessary Derby earnings, as there are basically only 1 1/2 other contenders in there, with NoBiz and maybe Summer Doldrums. As good as Any Given Saturday may be, and I think he's very good, the possibility of facing Great Hunter, Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Blue Grass is simply a mathematically more difficult spot for a horse who NEEDS earnings to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Thus, Pletcher has clearly made the right choice shipping to the Wood. The funny thing is someone bringing up questions about the surface. The Big A main track is considered by the horsemen to be one of the best in the land, and though obviously the track super in NY screwed it up some last meet, just as he seemed unable to stop the inner from being a gold rail for most of the past four months, but there are NO indications it is not in fine shape now. However, many trainers are leary of the Hawthorne surface, saying it can be hard on horses, so that is very likely why Todd chose Aqueduct over the Illinois Derby.
However, why then not run Circular Quay in next week's Blue Grass? He handled the poly OK in the Breeder's Futurity, and as he doesn't need earnings, so what if he doesn't win, as theoretically what he should need is a prep. Is there another Pletcher horse now going in that race that needs earnings? I find this hard to believe as the race is very strong and a mediocrity doesn't seem likely to now crack the top contenders ( especially if he worried Any Given Saturday might not ). So, why not just run Circular Quay there? It seems the perfect " prep ". That is why I am suspect of his condition.
On the " who the barn favors ". Well, they do love Scat Daddy. He is the barn darling. However, Todd Pletcher is extraordinarily bright and he knows clearly if all horses are sound Scat Daddy is at best his third likeliest Derby winner behind Any Given Saturday and Circular Quay. You all are free to have whatever opinions you like, but Scat Daddy is a distant third choice to those two if all are healthy....and someone as sharp as Todd Pletcher is acutely aware of this. I would also believe that while it's nice to have as many bullets as possible, Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.
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