[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For some clarification on this, the 5F race figures are an enormous problem at Belmont, and it may be because of different runups or simply because they run so few that it is hard to have an accurate par time. Todd Pletcher actually brought this up to me at Belmont last fall, as there were a number of difficult numbers over the past two years, one being discussed here along with Air Lord and Sam I Am the previous summer. Because of this, the initial raw numbers are often used, and then subsequently checked as these first time starter filled fields run more races to offer a better feel for their respective abilities. When Beyer Associates changes these figures in the future it is because they are trying to make their numbers as accurate as possible. Unfortunately, it is near impossible to judge some of the races accurately when first run, but of course they do the best job they can to do this.

Frankly, any player making definitive judgements about horses based on just the speed figure for one race, especially early starting 2YOs, is treading into very dangerous waters. Just like Beyer Associates, who always have these early races under review, a player should seriously evaluate these races for themselves. One way to do this is to keep a close watch at any horse from such races who make subsequent starts. Formulator-4 makes this easy and can often uncover numbers that seem " inaccurate ". Furthermore, sometimes it is apparent that these numbers are questionable, as was the case with the Sam I Am race where two NY Breds hit the wire together and yet the number still came up stakes quality high. Any sane handicapper would look at that number questioningly, especially considering the 5F difficulties, as the likelyhood of even one NY Bred 2YO, much less two, running that " fast " so early in its career seemed infinitessimal.

So the 5 furlong races at Monmouth are better? Cotton Blossom being an example from last year...If the run-up is a problem, couldn't it be fixed? I mean the run-up doesn't change year to year.