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Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
An overlay is an overlay, whether it's 10-1 or 8-5. I think AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field if Street Sense weren't in it, so by tossing him, I'm getting twice the fair odds in my opinion.
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By "tossing him", do you really think he has zero chance to win? Of course not. So, what chance do you give Street Sense? Let me turn that question around. Would you take 2-1 on Street Sense if you could get it? If so, you think he has at least a 33% chance to win the race.
You said AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field without Street Sense. If you mean 3-5 is fair odds, then that means that AGS would have a 5/8 = 62.5% chance to win the race without Street Sense. The rest of the field would have 37.5% chance to win. WITH Street Sense, those numbers are obviously reduced. If fair odds on Street Sense are, say, 2-1, then that 33% has to come from the chances of AGS and the other horses. AGS's chance to win would drop from 62.5% to around 42%. A 42% chance to win is close to 7-5. That's consistent with your 8-5, but it's heavily dependent on the fair odds you assign Street Sense. My point is it usually pays to assign odds rather than "toss". (unless you truly think Street Sense has zero chance, in which case you can make a ton of money by offering various people on this forum 2-1 on Street Sense.)
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Originally Posted by pgardn
If he goes off at even money 8 times, and you keep betting against and finally hit that 10-1 shot on the 9th, you made your money back and more in one play.
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That's a big "if". You have to not only be right that the fav is going to lose, but that your single play is going to win. Much more often, you will be "right" that the even money fav will lose, but you will be backing the wrong upsetter.
--Dunbar