Originally Posted by pgardn

If he goes off at even money 8 times, and you keep betting against and finally hit that 10-1 shot on the 9th, you made your money back and more in one play.

Lots of ways to look at it from a probability point of view. Looking for that big kill on a favorite at even money is death long term. In other words if you make that kill once, stop. But the tendency is very clearly to put big money down, make a 100% profit, and its party time. Then you look for party time again, and take a smackin. People cant leave that apparently easy money alone for long in this game.

That being said I will have fun watching, not wagering on this race. Imo Street Sense and Nobiz are the capable monsters this year. If you had to pick two horses that have a shot at the TC, I would go with these two.