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Originally Posted by Pointg5
It's only indefensible because you don't believe it, I believe in it and have benefitted from it, it doesn't always work out, but more often than not, horses do bounce. Turf horses tend to bounce less often, it's not a cut and dry rule, but show me something that is in this game...
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It's just regression to the mean. If a horse runs a race where he runs better than he does on average chances are he'll regress to the mean next out. It is not a rule that any horse that runs a big race though will bounce which the bounce theorists would make you believe. Sometimes it is just an improving horse that will keep improving.