I think this is setup to fail by design. The favorites are often underlays on top, so the only exactas that will count are going to be low mutuels, while the place payouts can capture all instances where a favorite finishes out of the money. I like the "exacta as a place bet" in theory, but I think you'd come out ahead by wheeling a few contenders over your longshot. Of course, that really makes it tough to follow for your purposes.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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