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Originally Posted by Sightseek
We are in pretty much complete agreement on Nobiz. 
What do you think of Boutrous in the Lewis? After reading the comments in the DRF it sounded like his trip was dreadfully awful, but when watching the replay last night, while he didn't get free run until the winner was well on his way I didn't think it was that awful of a trip that he would have been the winner with better. I'm picking up PP's after work today so I have no idea what sort of figures he had before and earned. I also noticed French Transition is in the race...last I saw him I think was the Breeder's Futurity, has he done anything sense? I'm very fond of Great Hunter and hope all of that foundation as a two year old puts him in the right direction. |
Not having seen the replay of the Boutrous race, on paper it looks like whatever trouble he had will not factor into his chances tomorrow. Figurewise? Great Hunters worst race is better than Boutrous's best race.
However, I hate betting a lowpriced favorite returning off of a long layoff in a race that they absolutely do not have to win and when the real target is a few months down the road. On paper Great Hunter wins this easy but under these circumstances I sometimes look for an upset by some up and comer who really needs the race and has more recent form. For example in this race I might look at horses like Tiago, Hurry Up Austin, or Sam P. If Great Hunter isn't quite ready or doesn't like SA for some reason you could catch a potentially huge payoff.
French Transition broke his maiden Feb 1st, with a rather uninspiring figure. Don't see him up to the task yet.