[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't like him at all as a Derby horse myself.

However, he is the fastest 3yo in the country on Beyer figures---and when you take into account that his raw naked figure was 18 points faster than the Southwest Stakes winner---unless there was something funky in the wind data, he will quite likely also have run a MONSTER figure on the sheets...because they don't split route and sprint variants.

I would assume that the gap between the Lukas maiden and the Southwest winner, which is 7 points on Beyers, would be a little wider on sheet style figs.

Of course, no one took Medaglia D' Oro that serious, when he won an Oaklawn MSW race, also at six furlongs, in Feb of his 3yo season, by 4 lengths with a 101 Beyer.

And while it's true MDO could only manage a 4th place finish in the Ky Derby, he also had an abysmal trip in that race.

The reason why I was surprised to see him make no ones top 20---is simply that there seems to be a pretty big talent deficiancy in this crop....and unlike quite a few in the top 20...at least this horse has a little talent. And when you factor in that his trainer has won the race three times, and will do everything in his power to get him into the race...I really expected someone to throw him on.

Not a bad argument actually, and this line is the reason why.