Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Hwjb
I reckon Ruby will be looking forward to the prospect of riding Kauto Star at those downhill fences immensely if he's travelling as strongly as he has for 99% of his 5 races so far this season and he has the Gold Cup at his mercy!!!
I think there's a real danger that the media fears regarding KS's jumping are going to overshadow the brilliance of his achievements in bringing up the 5-timer this season. He's over a stone clear of his closest challengers - and lets not forget that the British duo Exotic and Listener have had jumping problems of their own in the past.
Similarly I would be far more concerned about the fact that War of Attrition has lost his last 3 races than I would that Kauto Star has made a couple of (serious) errors in winning.
For me it's a close run thing as to whether Kauto or Well Chief are the banker of the meeting. That horse is similarly far clear of his field on ratings, and if all goes well over the next few weeks surely he wins. He was actually running about a stone behind his best form in winning at the weekend, but without the likes of Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop around it seems unlikely that he'll needs to reproduce his form of 2 seasons ago.
Aran Concerto didn't really tell us anything new and remains a most exciting prospect. He doesn't look short on speed, but his pedigree suggests 20f+ will provide his optimum test. The old SunAlliance has to be the race for him.
Whilst on the subject, I'm struggling to believe that Lounaos is still such a big price (11/2) for the Triumph. For all that Katchit is likeable, he's lacking in scope, and Lounaos has considerably better form to his name. There's no way he'd be that big if he were trained by Noel Meade, for example. Mountain is likely to do better but is far too short anyway, and Degas Art is probably the one towards the top of the betting who I'd fear most.
|
I agree about Kauto, and i probably overshadowed his performances with his blunders, but still. With the fences being much stiffer at chelters, and with him making mistakes in most of his chase starts, i would prefer to be backing him not to complete. Nicholls has said he will make things better, but he has also said that he never makes mistakes at home, so if he never makes at home, how can he improve him??
Is it the third or second last that has caused many horses problems at Cheltenham, in the past? I can never remember.
I see Aran has been well backed for the Supreme just lately (although i havent looked at the old sunalliance race market lately), maybe they are seriously considering a tilt at the supreme....... in my opinion it is a better race to win.
I think Well Chief will win, although i think a fully recovered and fit VPU will be a very big danger and i think WC will drift on the day.
As far as the Triumph goes, i always get dragged into this race head first. I backed Jayo at a massive price before he dotted up first time, I aslo backed Tritonix months and months ago and got on Mountain at 20's, which i think is fair. If i'm honest, i expect mountain to win. His win at Sandown wasn't visually impressive but if he hadn't have jumped slowly towards the finish, he would have won 4lengths maybe more, and if someone like Murphy was on board i'm sure he would have won 'hard held' McCoy makes things look like slightly harder than they actually are.