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Originally Posted by golfer
Exactly right, I used the Thoro-pattern stats (over 75 percent to run an off or x race), plus this is just a pattern that I've seen so many times recently, I never look at it positively, just lately I've begun to look at it negatively.
Of course, had he been 15-1 instead of one of the favorites... I might have seen it differently.
2 things I've learned recently, #'s versus odds, if the odds are right, many patterns can look "good", and don't key a horse off an "effort" with less than 3 weeks rest (this one came from the Len Freidman, sorry JB).
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I don't want to diss Freidman, fact is that I have heard many stories how the guy is just one of the best handicappers of all time, I heard this from of all people, a thorograph person. From what I have seen, that goes into those numbers, some of Freidman's numbers are skewed pretty heavily (The most recent one I remember was that El Prado horse (greely was the trainer) that ran huge race at Belmont two years ago, right before the BC) Comparing Rags vs TG in that specific horse was downright sickening and TG's number was alot more solid of a number in my opinion. I have heard that TG's are roughly 2-4 pts faster then Rags, this was about 9 points, if I remember correctly