Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gander
Let me take a shot at a ML...
1 Invasor (ARG) Jara F 123 L 3/5
2 Halos Sailing Sain Bravo J 112 L 30/1
3 A. P. Arrow Desormeaux K J 112 L 12/1
4 Chatain Velasquez C 114 L 8/1
5 Tap Dancing Mauk Nunez E O 112 L 50/1
6 Hesanoldsalt Bejarano R 114 L 20/1
7 Magna Graduate Velazquez J R 118 L 9/2
8 Barcola Castellano J J 110 L 40/1
9 Strong Contender Prado E S 117 L 7/2
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Gander, are you predicting how the betting will go, or is that an estimate of "fair odds"?
Here's my preliminary fair odds line:
PP# Horse Fair odds
1 Invasor
1-1
2 Halos Sailing Sain
60
3 AP Arrow
15
4 Chatain
10
5 Tap Dancing Mauk
125
6 Hesanoldsalt
12
7 Magna Grad
15
8 Barcola
15
9 Strong contender
10
IMO Invasor has about a 50% chance to win the race. If he has half the money in the win pool bet on him, he will be bet down to around 3-5. If he gets bet down further than that, I think he becomes a bet-against.
Anyone else think Barcola, shedding 14 lbs from his last race, is worth a look if 25-1?
--Dunbar