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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I like Showing Up as a horse, and I think he will do very well in next year's Met Mile, but I am dubious of his chances against top competition at any distance over a mile.
As for accepting based on opinions of his connections that he will excel on the grass, I'm strongly in Mike's corner, as working on the grass and racing on it are two totally different things. I will happily bet against him at what will probably be very underlaid odds this weekend based on reputation. He will beat me first time on the grass, especially at 1 3/16ths, as horses like Showing Up dramatically underperform their odds in these types of situations.
The funny thing is that in my heart I will probably be rooting for him but making money in this game is not about rooting with your heart. Showing Up is a bad bet in this race at any odds under 6-1 and probably at odds under 10-1.
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He got a ton out of the 10F in the derby. Horse is very fit. As for the Met Mile, I think they will go for the BC Mile on the Turf next year instead of taking on horses on the dirt. He is just a better horse on the turf, although I understand most won't believe it until after this weekend. Distance could be a concern but not against this bunch. He is a much different horse than you saw him 7 weeks ago. People keep forgetting he ran a 10F race after running 2 weeks earlier. No bruise or puncture wound this time around.