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Originally Posted by Balletto
Well, im going to let my dorky side shine for a minute and confess that im a huge movie buff and oscar pundit of sorts.
Kate Winslet is my favorite actress but she wont be winning the oscar this year for an incredibly complex character.
Heavenly Creatures was her amazing debut in film and her work in Holy Smoke, Hamlet, Jude, and Quills were all performances she should have been nominated for but was overlooked. She's an oscar darling and is extremely respected.
Her best acting was done in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. That script and character could have been an absolute disaster but she made it work and it ended up being one of the smartest movies in a very long time.
After losing the Best Actress oscar two years ago for this film, results showed she came in second in voting and when voters were asked who they thought was the best of the year most answered with "Winslet, but I didnt really understand the movie and she had blue hair". Remember folks, the majority of Oscar voters are older, white, straight, conservative men.
This is Mirren's year. She's won every pre-cursor, including one from the Black Actors Guild which has never awarded a non-African American actor before.
If there's a challenger, its going to be the late rush of fellow Dame Judi Dench in the wonderful Notes of a Scandal. Its a delicious role for her thats quite against type. She plays a fanatical, obsessed lesbian that is killer.
As it stands, Best Actress will go to Mirren, with Dench, Streep (in a supporting role... but being campaigned as a lead), Winslet and Cruz.
Best Supporting Actress is interesting with newcomer Jennifer Hudson making one of the best debut performances in the history of Cinema. If you havent seen Dreamgirls, its a flawed movie but this girl is INCREDIBLE. Its being hailed as one of the best performances of all time, and rightfully so.
She is probably the "lead" in Dreamgirls but is being pushed in Supporting for a few reasons... she wont win against Mirren being a newcomer, and rumors are that Beyonce has a clause in her contract for the movie that only she can be pushed for a Best Actress campaign. Hudson's stiffest competition is going to come from Cate Blanchett who is the pedophile object of obsession to the aforementioned Judi Dench character in Notes of a Scandal.
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Oh, Balletto, we're going to have some fun once the nominations are up!
My only thought for Winslet still pulling it out is that A)she's been nominated a bajillion times and not won and eventually the Academy seems to give an award for, "Oh, all right already" which is how one gets travesties like Pacino winning for "Scent of a Woman." (I'm NOT dissing Pacino; I just don't think that was a great performance) I loved Mirren in "The Queen" and actually would prefer she won, as I think Kate will have many more opportunities for Oscar roles than Mirren, but I think Kate has all the nominations going for her and B)she's pretty (my husband says don't underestimate the "young pretty" factor for Best Actress). I agree she was sensational in "Eternal Sunshine" and that movie was a thing of beauty. What a film.
I agree that Hudson seems like the leader for Supporting- plus, Oscar looooves to give that to a newcomer. I thought "Dreamgirls" was supremely average, and honestly, thought she was decent, but very physically stiff. Don't get me wrong; I got weepy during "And I Am Telling You" but I don't know if that was her or the song being very well written (one of the few; I think it's a so-so score overall). Music is very manipulative, and can help along a performance. Hudson sure has a set of pipes. And she'll get better as she goes along, acting-wise.
Though, on the other hand, a friend of mine who is a casting director and has heard that song many, many times at auditions, says that Hudson's performance in the film was the first time she'd actually gotten what the song was about, so that's to Hudson's credit.
The performance in that film that really blew me away was Eddie Murphy. He's getting a nom for sure.
I think Best Actor will go to Forest Whitaker for "Last King of Scotland."
Here are my early picks for the Best Picture nominees (note: I am little better at Oscar picking than I am at handicapping!)
Children of Men (dark horse, but I think it will squeak in)
Pan's Labyrinth (which will win Best Foreign Language, anyway)
Dreamgirls (because of the hype)
Babel (the "message" film)
Letters from Iwo Jima (because Hollywood loves Clint)
Check back with me in two days; I'm sure my list will have changed by then.
Certain bet: "Pirates of the Caribbean 2" will not get a Best Picture nomination, People's Choice Awards be damned! Will get a Special Effect nod for sure, though.