[moses]

Saturday.

(Edit: Switching away from #4 Stone Smuggler in Race 7 as one of the speeds was scratched out and doubtful the 8/1 line holds as a result.)

Race 10. #8 Bellezza 4/1. I liked this horse quite a bit when she went off as the favorite and then was embarrassed in a nearly 9-length defeat against Le Mehana in the Glens Falls. My thought is that La Mehana simply relished the yielding turf that day. They'll be on firm ground in this race. I don't want any of the front runners as I think this pace is going to heat up. I think these two will run 1-2 once again but I'm looking for Bellezza to turn the tables on her stablemate this time around.

Race 13. #7 Irish Gent 10/1. I thought this horse was pretty good as a 2YO and now makes his 2nd start off a long layoff. His first race back puts him a notch below the top horses here but he may have just needed a race. And personally, he looks more like a turf router than turf sprinter to me. I don’t love the top contenders here and think he will be live at a big price despite coming from the Pletcher barn. His sire was a sprinter but has produced turf routers — such as Zulu Kingdom.

Sunday

Race 5. #5 White Abarrio 8/1. The focus here will be on Mindframe vs. Sierra Leone and note it looks like the pace will be quick enough to setup for Sierra Leone's late punch again. After the Whitney, a lot of people might land on Highland Falls as the horse to play back out of that race (and he ran a very good race that day) but I want to give White Abarrio a chance. White Abarrio is no stranger to Grade 1 wins, notching four of them over his career in addition to several other nice wins. White Abarrio does lose Irad to Mindframe but replaces him with Ricardo Santana who should give him a chance to win still. In the Whitney, White Abarrio was wide throughout and was still running strong in the stretch. He just didn't have enough left for Sierra Leone and Disarm, both of which got perfect trips (Disarm moved way too soon imo but it wasn't enough for me to be convinced he could turn the tables here), or Highland Falls who just ran a huge race and I suspect is due for a bit of a regression after it.

Race 10. #9 Big Invasion 5/1. This is a crazy competitive field but if Big Invasion is truly going to be 5/1 then I want to run to the windows with both hands toting a fistful of dollars. He's the most talented turf sprinter in here and should win if he fires his best. That's a big question mark but Clement horses have generally run pretty well off the layoff and I'd love to get 5/1 on him.