Quote:
Originally Posted by theguarantee
Awesome work man. The positive ROI is super impressive but I’ve always appreciated the explanations. I can attest it’s hard enough to post everyday (I missed a few) but to usually also explain why and post a profit on a WP wager structure is truly impressive. Special shout out to the explanations - I wish I didn’t have to post so many picks without because to me without explaining why posting picks online is somewhat worthless. That’s not meant to be a knock to anyone who does on this board. Anyway, appreciate all the thoughts and hope it translated to a profitable meet for you.
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Couple things here to explain my "worthless" posting.
There are many ways to play this game. For me it is a Quantitative pursuit as I have been a Computer Geek Long before it became Chic. I export data from standard Horse Racing Software into my database and then apply my process model which has taken me over 1000 hours to develop and refine and always be a work in progress. From that comes my model and my reports. I view them to make my picks but don't blindly use them. I use additional reports to see what factors are trending over last 5-10-20 races and look at what factors long shots tend to have and my chances for a long shot in the particular race based upon Outlook and if this type of situation is prone to longshots. All this is for the specific track distance surface I am playing.
This process works for me and is different than the traditional methods you and Hoss and many people use. Your process leads itself to great explanations and analysis. My process does not as folks would have no idea what the factors I am citing even are and those that do maybe smart enough to reverse engineer it.
I built this after my first NHC like 9 years ago based upon a simple response I got on this board from a very smart and successful tournament player who I always admired due to his background and success. After my first tournament I noticed many people in the room where using the same software. I posted on these boards something like
"If so many people use the same software how can any of them win as they all will be choosing the same horses?"
Paul Weizer replied with one sentence. "You seem smart enough, you'll figure it out"
It hit me that the Software was simply the instrument and my process be it good or bad will produce the music.
Sorry for the long winded post its been a long summer. Quite bored as I'm currently staying in some random hotel in Virginia for a week as I needed to take my mom down here to take care of my brother who Friday had Open Heart Surgery.