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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
OK, I don't agree with the math at all but no big deal. Apparently I can take any lightly run horse that has shown a little potential and claim they have more upside potential than Sir Greeley so must be 5-1 or 10-1 to win a G1. I think for Strong Contender to turn out good enough to win one of the few G1s out there is 10-1 and then the odds of his actually finding the right spot if that scenario occurs is 3-1 to 4-1. So because of the upside I'd put Strong Contender around 35-1 to win a G1 and Sir Greeley at 50-1. Just the odds alone of Strong Contender being out of training by the time they run the 2nd G1 on the east coast in May are pretty substantial.
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If you think Strong Contendor is 35-1 ( or 3% ) to win a Grade 1 this year you don't understand the math IN THIS SITUATION even a little bit. You really don't understand how to look at this mathematically and the example you gave is WAY off course. Here's a SMALL part....if Strong Contendor ran in only two grade 1s, and was 20-1 in each, he would be under 10-1 to win a Grade 1 this year.
I tell you what.....ask Phil to explain it.