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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I am not going to go through the mathematical permutations but I think it is pretty fair to say that Strong Contendor is in the 16% range to win a least one Grade 1 this year. Maybe he's closer to 10% but he certainly has a very real chance. Sir Greeley has next to no chance.
Sun King is obviously a superior horse to Sir Greeley, the fact that he finished behind him in a meaningless allowance race ( coincidentally the kind of race Sir Greeley excels in ) is irrelevent to their respective talents, and I would hope you know that. Sir Greeley was on the pace, on a speed favoring track, while Sun King was wide and clearly closer than he would prefer to be. Considering their subsequent performances it would be silly to even suggest Sir Greeley is a better horse. Right now Sun King is superior to Strong Contendor but I would say Strong Contendor has more upside. He is probably more likely to win a Grade 1 in 2007 than Sun King.
Once again, I have no idea who has a better chance should these horses meet Saturday, and have made many bets ( and even won some ) on horses I believed to be inferior to their competition, but there is no doubt that Strong Contendor has MUCH more upside than Sir Greeley. Only one of them has any chance of having a big year in 2007....and it aint Mr. Greeley. Arguing otherwise makes no sense.
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OK, I don't agree with the math at all but no big deal. Apparently I can take any lightly run horse that has shown a little potential and claim they have more upside potential than Sir Greeley so must be 5-1 or 10-1 to win a G1. I think for Strong Contender to turn out good enough to win one of the few G1s out there is 10-1 and then the odds of his actually finding the right spot if that scenario occurs is 3-1 to 4-1. So because of the upside I'd put Strong Contender around 35-1 to win a G1 and Sir Greeley at 50-1. Just the odds alone of Strong Contender being out of training by the time they run the 2nd G1 on the east coast in May are pretty substantial.