First Happy Valley card of the season tomorrow (early morning North American time). As with the season opener, a few of these names might pop up again here in their second or third starts of the campaign, but let's hope they're right fresh.
Race 1:
#4 Win All: Has done absolutely nothing on the track in his five starts to date, but eligible to improve dropping down into Class 5 with the benefit of an off-season. Has put in a lot of work for this, which has looked good, and finally draws a good post in a very weak race.
Race 2:
#10 Even Keel is another who hasn’t done a thing in HK, but he at least has two earlier wins in the UK. He’s still a 4yo, and sometimes the Northern Hemisphere horses take a while to acclimatize---he’s down 28 rating points from his arrival. In any case, he didn’t look too bad at HV at the end of last season and seems to have benefited from the off-season and trainer change, as he looked good in a recent trial with different headgear. Worth a shot in another race lacking depth.
Race 3:
I’ve been following #4 Momentum Galaxy for a while now as he’s racked up a few excuses. In his four Class 4 runs (in order), he’s been blocked for nearly the whole stretch, missed the start by six lengths, drew wide in a race full of speed, and then was on the dirt. I’m a bit concerned that maybe this is just to stretch his legs before stepping up to 1200m, but he did win over 1100m in Australia, and he should get a perfect trip with there seemingly being little speed drawn inside him.
Also going to mention #11 For Fun's Sake, who also sports a slew of excuses, and although I'm tempted at that price with the 5lbs apprentice, I think the 1000m will be too short for me to play him on top. Might be worth a few place dollars, however.
Race 5:
#10 Authentic Champ: Obviously has had some problems, as shown by the nearly 1.5 year gap between his first and second starts, but he did show some ability on those occasions. His third, and last, start was over 1650m, which was likely too far. Back to 1200m for a trainer who hit at a relatively big (for HK) clip over this course and distance last year, and the price looks right.
Race 8:
#7 Keep You Warm: I played this one in the final Sha Tin race last season where he had some traffic trouble and got clear too late. Irish-bred and hence still a 3yo, so very much open to having improved over the last couple of months. Should get a great trip from post 4.
PLAYS:
R1 WP 4
R2 WP 10
R3 WP 4, P 11
R5 WP 10
R8 WP 7
Good luck!
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