Starting with PO'P's "TGI" (sire index: average figure of his progeny at that age): Paddy offspring improve nearly 3 points (on Thoro-Graph scale) as they mature from 3 to 4. This is the 16 down to 13.1. With Prince Earl establishing a 4 as his best as a 3yo (see below), with natural development he figured to run potentially down towards a 1, easily fast enough to beat the favorites in this spot. With D'Amato willing to make the seasonal debut in a G2 spot and with the ground saving rail draw and at 12-1 (ML), he was exactly the kind of horse I want to play. Had potential to run a winning race, got a spectacularly confident ride from Franco and it worked out.
Thoro-Graph is basically $25 per card (less when you add more tracks) for these kinds of performance figures, trainer, jockey and sire/progeny stats. It's invaluable on all fronts. After first being attracted to TG for the best speed figures available, I've come to rely on all the other stats and indexes nearly as much.