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Originally Posted by pgardn
Yes, yes, yes. My whole reason for being highly cautious of Pik bets, which I went to war with Oracle and Scuds on and no one understood. In fact most people backed them because after all, its Oracle and Scuds, not a minor league poster like myself.
Kurt. If the track gave you Pik combination odds, like the Win odds on the tote board do, then you would know that a lot of people had/have a ticket just like yours. Ex. If a horse is even odds to win, you know a lot of people have bet on your horse. But you do not know how many people hold tickets on pik bets that are the same as yours, therefore you do not know what the payout will be. Reguardless of what the pool size says. It does not matter because you dont know how many people hold winning tickets. You do know that a lot of money is on a horse that is even odds with a straight up win bet because the tote board tells you. There is no pik combination tote board until a number of races composing that pik bet are in.
Now after dissing pik bets, I will say they are highly entertaining. They are much more fun to try and figure out where you go deep etc... based on what the rest of the public might do. Getting the best bang for your buck by building a good ticket, while at the same time avoiding the massive number of public tickets that might be a winner, but are not worth the risk. This is why I find pik bets interesting.
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Even though I like the p3 bets,I have noticed that some of the tracks are a waste of time to play them at.I think I looked at Zia Park one time,and they were almost always under the parlay.Turfway certainly has problems with them.Anita's pick 3's can be diseased.It doesn't happen as much (or as badly ) as it happens at some of the smaller tracks. Overall,the p4 is less apt to pay under the win parlay,and is more apt to pay way over what it should.We have had 2 days of racing at Anita,and on both days,the late p3 was under what it should be,and the p4 was way over what it should be.The late p4 yesterday should have paid what? 8k?? It paid over 22k?? I know what PGRDN'S POINT IS,but I got $5800 for a pick 3 with a win parlay of $1800.So it is a tough sell.I would like to get a lot more info on trends of the tracks though.I do think playing the Turfway/Zia park/Sunland ETC. is pretty much like THE WILD,WILD WEST.Like I said,try to favor the p4 over the p3.The p4 seems to be less apt to be as f'd up.