Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
The key to this race is who Mike Smith is going to ride and who Gary Stevens is going to ride. I'll presume Victor Espinoza will take American Pharoah over Congaree and War Emblem. Stevens I think would take Point Given over Silver Charm to try and make up for his epic botch in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. Smith will probably stay with Justify, leaving Arrogate for Bejarano.
That aside, you are looking at a 3-horse speed duel as Justify, Bayern, and War Emblem were either unproven or useless in a stalking position. They won't be there at the end, though I could see Justify fighting on through the stretch.
CONGAREE ran one of the stronger races of the bunch going 10f at Churchill (Point Given 0-for-2 at Churchill) and he is the upset special here. He is proven at attending a breakneck pace and has also shown he can settle just off a speed duel without getting fried. There is no one-run closer to run him down (Excellent Meeting was left off the list) if he gets the jump on the field. However, SILVER CHARM has similar qualities and a lot more tenacity than Congaree ever showed so he is the one to beat. Congaree had a better turn of foot and so Silver Charm will have to engage early not to lose critical ground at the top of the stretch.
AMERICAN PHAROAH showed he could settle well and attend the pace in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, but he was all-out to score and he simply won't have enough for more than a minor award.
ARROGATE has all the appropriate qualities (running style, natural speed, stamina) for the distance, but is suspect in a quality field. He ran down California Chrome and beat Gun Runner a couple of times when that one was in the midst of 4 or 5 race losing streak, so he has a bit to prove class-wise. Exotics use only.
BAYERN is a pace factor only. JUSTIFY will probably shrug off Bayern and War Emblem but will face multiple challenges by the 1/4 pole and will cave by mid-stretch.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY's form is darkened by bad trips, off-tracks, and synthetic surfaces. He also retired at 3 while lightly raced, so it's hard to presume much progression. He also was 0-for-2 at 10 furlongs. Middle move but will lack any kind of serious rally.
POINT GIVEN was a difficult horse to ride. Blessed with natural speed, he lost both the Champagne and the Derby when too close to hot paces. However, when taken well off the pace, he was terrible, coming up short in the BC Juvenile (when 10-wide) and lugging in badly in both the Preakness and Haskell while under heavy pressure to rally. His other races were public workouts facing sprinters (Crafty C.T., I Love Silver) or dedicated punching bags (AP Valentine, Dollar Bill). This hypothetical race will play out similar to the 2001 Kentucky Derby, he'll either wilt from the pace or have too much to do at the top of the stretch to make a dent versus these.
REAL QUIET is a solid closer but has the human anchor in Kent Desormeaux. Always comes with a big run, but when ill-timed (read: moves too early), the horse tends to hang or wilt. Even in the 1998 Kentucky Derby he was getting late in deep stretch, swapping back to his left lead and just holding off Victory Gallop. Threatens in mid-stretch but ultimately outfinished.
SILVERBULLETDAY was fed a diet of slow-paced/weak fielded Grade 3 and Grade 2s to pad her resume, but Excellent Meeting was a much better fit at this distance, especially with a fast pace a near certainty. Chasing these, she'll be done after 6 furlongs. WAR EMBLEM is a pace factor only.
Exacta box CONGAREE and SILVER CHARM. Use ARROGATE, REAL QUIET and AMERICAN PHAROAH in the trifecta.
INDIAN CHARLIE would have been a threat on the win end if he was entered...
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