Quote:
Originally Posted by ontheoutside
stay behind pace setter and ease over period you have a 5-2 shot in front of you and a 4-5 shot passing him he isn't splitting anything watch the race this horse was much better where he was he did what you said and he finished last less ground to cover is the name of the game
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As I said before, you will lose a ton of ground if you go wide all the way around the turn. But you lose practically no ground if you swing out at the top of the stretch. A mathematician wanted to figure out how much ground it would cost a horse if they drew post #20 in the Kentucky Derby. He was surprised by what the math showed. The horse actually would not lose a ton of ground unless he ended up going wide around the turns. In another words, if the horse could somehow angle over to the rail before they hit the turn, the horse would only lose around 2 lengths. If a horse stayed in the 20 path around the turn they would lose around 20 lengths. Angling out (or in) on a straightaway costs you very little. It is going wide around the turn that will cost you a lot.
With regard to the race you are talking about, the horse's poor finish had nothing to do with him swinging out. The horse was lugging in at the top of the stretch. Then when another horse swung out into his path, the near collision did your horse in. He lost all his momentum It's hard to tell where he would have finished if it weren't for that incident. He would have obviously finished quite a bit better than he did.