Quote:
Originally Posted by DonGuido
Sorry, but this stuff drives me crazy as a die hard amature but somewhat savvy handicapper. Does she know anything about this sport, does she know anything about handicapping races or picking horses, does she?!?!?! Like I'm reading and deciphering the PP's and this lady behind that's been at the track for the first time in her life hits a $450 trifecta and she doesn't even know what a trifecta is. Go freaking figure! Does is matter to us . . .not really but it just drives me freaking crazy. All I can say is good for her!!! I guess?
OK so wait take this one on . . . "It's not what you know but what you don't know". That's the secret? Can anyone here relate to this? Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!
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Let's face it Don, folks who handicap like you or me are very unlikely candidates to hit a jackpot pick 5 like this one. Of the horses in the sequence, we would certainly have had Justify and Limousine Liberal as "A"'s. From there it gets tougher. Race 9 was a scramble in which most players would have gone fairly deep, and Maraud probably would have ended up as a "B" on most tickets. In Race 11, I'm not sure whether Yoshida would have ended up on any of my tickets, as it would have been every tempting to stand alone with Beach Patrol, especially after the scratch of Deauville.
However, there is no way that Funny Duck would have been anything other than an "X" on your or my multirace evaluation. The only possible way that FD could have been on any of our tickets would have been for us to say "The Pat Day Mile is a complete mystery; I have no clue as to possible winners and am confident enough in all of the other races that I will use the ALL button on this race and hope for chaos." There is simply no other handicapping way that I could have ended up with FD. My problem with this approach is that so often when I try to spread a broad net in a multi race bet, a short priced horse will win and I end up getting lessback in winnings than the original bet. RQ has seen me do this often in our ROI contests.
The bottom line is that neither of us will ever hit a wild multi race payoff like that one. The best we can hope for is to hit with a much higher percentage than those who play funny names or favorite numbers, so we will win more frequently but be resigned to smaller payoffs when we do. I'm just happy to play in the same pari-mutuel pools with folks who play names and numbers rather than seriously handicapping. They will win, but when they don't, their losing picks make the payoffs larger for everyone else.
Hope this rambling makes you feel a little better.