Quote:
Originally Posted by theguarantee
The Blue Grass has not been a very productive Derby prep in recent history but I do personally figure that will shortly change. Whether it doesn’t this year remains to be seen....I haven’t seen the workout reports yet on Good Magic but he certainly feels like a tough call at this point. What do you make of him?
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It's hard nowadays to get a good read on horses heading into the Derby, as most only start twice at the most beforehand rather than four or even five times. The big question with Good Magic is: has he improved from age 2 to 3?
The Fountain of Youth was run at a modest early pace. Good Magic broke sharply, as he did in the BC, and then settled nicely behind the first flight. He was under a good hold throughout the backstretch and responded when asked for a bid towards the leaders at the 3/8 pole. Given the layoff and the relatively slow pace, its not a shock that Good Magic failed to level up with Promises Fulfilled (or Strike Power who went all in at the 1/4 pole) after that one controlled the pace unimpeded. Good Magic switched leads and followed those two willingly to the wire. That Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power were thoroughly toasted in the Florida Derby in a absurd speed duel should not sour the form displayed by Good Magic in the FOY.
When there is a sharper, contested pace in front of him (BC Juvenile), we see his main strength: having enough pace to get by tiring frontrunners at the head of the lane and getting the jump on the closers.
Depending on the pace, another even effort at Keeneland shouldn't put one off the horse as more than likely he'll get his ideal pace at Churchill. Though it has not been the case in the immediate past, plenty of horses in the last 2 decades have won the Derby without winning their final or even any of their prep races (Real Quiet, Funny Cide, Jokemo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver). Trainer Chad Brown took down the Preakness last year with a similar pattern from Cloud Computing.