Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004
3rd or 5th choice, really? She has been overbet in almost every career race. She would probably be co favorite with Stellar Wind, 2nd choice at worst. Even though right now i dont think she could beat at least 4 horses being pointed to the Distaff.
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The most immediate concern for Songbird is to clear this physical exam hurdle by the owner. Regardless of actual results, the owner's comments suggest that he's looking for a way out of any further exposure.
What he doesn't seem to realize is that there is plenty of time for Songbird to come to hand before the Breeder's Cup. If given the green light, there is no way Hollendorfer follows this cute little trend of "training up to the BC" (just when you thought the f'n circus couldn't get any worse). She will almost certainly run in the Zenyatta, which is important, because it gives the filly a chance to run from "out of her stall". Lots of people, and quasi-people (e.g., Freddy), have taken it for granted that she brings her A-game to her East Coast starts. That wasn't the case last year (her highest rated race was the BC Distaff at Santa Anita), so why should it be this year? Keep in mind that two horses that supposedly laid her over a barrel, Stellar Wind and Beholder, never were able to duplicate their home form on the road.
Speaking of those two, when was the first time Stellar Wind actually ran a fast race? Looks like October of her 4yo season to me. Beholder? August of her 5yo year. There's still time for Songbird to move up.
Finally, as a point of comparison with Beholder, I mentioned last year that Beholder's 2016 defeats--the Pacific Classic aside where she clearly was not in California Chrome's league--might be related to the fact that she was being sent to the lead and thus a sitting duck in the stretch. In fact, at the time it had been over 3 years since she won a race wire-to-wire. In the BC, she reverted to a stalking trip and tagged Songbird late.
I'd be curious to see if Songbird could improve form by tweaking her running style. Having a target to run at might change things up, or at the very least give Smith a better cue as to when to try and break the race open with her speed. Last year, Songbird sat second early in 3 of 8 starts.