Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
So on Day 3, you think it "should be as good as it ever is going to be?" Really? Would you bet on that being true?
Unlike a couple other people in this conversation, you're a bright guy, and you bet, and likely look to beat favorites if the opportunity presents itself. Why aren't you applying the same logic here? Do you think the people behind this decision didn't understand that the bet would handle a fraction of what it could handle? Have you considered all the reasons this might be being done?
It's a complex discussion. Most are. Simply whittling it down to "it would be handling much more the other way" can't be the best way to look at it. Just as looking at any race and saying "the favorite's got this one" is probably a bad idea.
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I said that because of all the Graded Stakes races and arguably today is the#2 or at least #3 best day all year on NY circut. I am willing to bet $500 that this bet doesn't exist Jan 1 2018 with the current limitation of NY Bets customers only with no guaranteed minimums. How many horse players that you can recruit are looking at the reduced potential handle vs the difficulty of hitting this and not bothering? Speaking for myself if I had the opportunity I would not play it as it exists. I know I hit this bet about 5% of the time the way I play it and dont partcipate in pools less than 200K nor short fields which has kept me out of Santa Anita this year. But this is my thought process and it is not like I haven't been wrong in the past and certainly will be wrong in the future.