Steve -
First of all, thank you for the excellent coverage leading up the the Derby.
I've been around here and listened to ATR for well over 10 years. During that time, I don't remember a situation that I've disagreed with you more than your post script on Always Dreaming and Pletcher.
You're coming off as dismissive, even a bit condescending (especially during Night School) to anyone that bet against Always Dreaming. It seems that you're making the assumption that anyone that bet against AD is actively wishing ill will on Pletcher. I try my best to separate my personal opinions of connections and the wagers I make.
I do not actively cheer against Pletcher but I told anyone that asked me that I was completely against AD on Saturday. Obviously, I was wrong but I wanted to share my reasoning.
1. While I don't think the 1-45 Derby record is completely relevant to this situation, it's not totally irrelevant either. I looked at every horse he'd brought to the Derby before (I created a database if you want to look) and agree that most should not have been expected to win based on their past performances. Additionally, there are few instances where we look at Formulator stats and include 16 years of data. I focused on his record since Super Saver. Horses coming off big tops have not performed well. Horses that ran those tops at GP or AQU have not performed well. Beyond the Derby horses, there are plenty of other Pletcher horses that haven't been able to replicate their GP form in KY. I don't know why and won't speculate but I also won't bet my money on those horses (Saturday won't change that). At 4-1, I didn't consider him to be a wise bet.
2. A lot has been made about how this horse was handled differently. My response to this - Just because he did something different with Always Dreaming, it wasn't a guarantee to work. At 4-1, I didn't consider him to be a wise bet.
3. The workout reports were glowing to say the least. But remember that the equipment change occurred after the workout. He was headstrong every morning and per your conversation with Clocker Dave, that was different for the horse. I agree that most of your clocker guests said positive things about the actual work on 4/28 but Welsch and team gave themselves plenty of wiggle room in my opinion = "Very talented but his demeanor a big question mark on Derby day" Even with a stellar work, there was plenty to question. Not to mention, there were other horses that looked to be training very well without the post work drama. At 4-1, I didn't consider him to be a wise bet.
So again, I'm not a Pletcher "hater" by any means but I still didn't see AD as a likely winner. The funniest thing about all of this is that I keyed a Pletcher horse (Tapwrit) heavily on Saturday. He looked like a carbon copy of Bluegrass Cat and he was a giant price. I thought he'd pair his Tampa Race and he did. Just wasn't enough.
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