[Secretriat34]

I have a number of questions that stem from the derby preps.
And after i write them here, you will conclude as have i, that derby 143 is a wide open betting race.

Always Dreaming, while winning impressively in a good time has some down side. AD may bounce , this was his first stakes race, and while he ran well, it was not a Big Brown, Barbaro, type of WOW race. Also, Battalion Runner was Pletchers go to colt; Who scratched and went to the Wood. There Batallion Runner, ran well, but he ran into Irish War Cry, who can win at 9f on the lead, but can he win at 10f in Louisville given that running style. I can type on and on about the inconsistency in the winners of all the last round of preps. There are questions about who will step up 5-6-17, and run like a champion.

Inconsistency and slow times result in the lack of a definite stand out colt leader. The winner of the BCJ, Classic Empire ran well, but he was defeated by IWC in the Holy Bull so does that make IWC the leader, who for some reason ran a 76 beyer in the FOY. Its these types on inconsistencies that draw me to conclude that the race will pay well, At The Windows.

After IWC defeated CE, IWC was number 1, then he ran like crap 1 month later in the FOY losing by 21 lengths. from then on its been one new leader after each prep race. AD wins in FLA, and now he's the leader. Then CM steps it up in Arkansas after missing training and he's the leader . But does he have the foundation to run all 10f in 11 days. Its not like he is Streetsense who had an abbreviated prep schedule on purpose. CE lack of racing as a colt is an injury thing. Girvin is consistent , but he has a lack of derby winning speed. And Conquest Mo Money, this years Sun King, (always the bridesmaid, never the bride) always ITM, but not in the picture circle.

The SA derby simply lacked talent. Mastery was by far the best out on the island west of here, but he injured, leaving nothing in his wake, but some also rans, like Gormley, Battle of Midway, Royal Mo. Hence, Irap, Practical Joke, State of Honor, Guneverra who defeated CE and Practical joke (1,3 in the BCJ): any of these could have a great sunny first Saturday in May, feeling their oats and generating the chemicals colts create in the spring of the 3 year old season.

So its wide open, doubt if Thunder Snow can get it done, no pedigree.
for $140 you can play a 10/15 exacta, and this may be the best , SAFEST bet of the day.