
01-06-2017, 04:59 PM
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Del Mar
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger5830
Firstly, the WPS takeout at Gulfstream is 17%, not 16%. But, using your numbers, when you divide 10,772 by 17,393, the answer I get is .6193..., and when you use a 17% take then the answer is lowered to .6043..., both of which are well under the .7 which would be needed for the payoff to be $3.40. If you do these calculations often, as I do, you'll know that due to net pool pricing, anytime the number lands near the breakage point, the payoff will always be short when you bet on the more well-supported winner. So while under the old calculation the payoff should have been $3.20, (albeit never $3.40) a payoff of $3.00 is not surprising at all.
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Thanks Ranger!
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