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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I would be careful. In the second a hopeless sprinter stretching out just got nailed at the wire by the 6:5 stalker and nobody made up any perceptible ground. In the third it was a contentious, while not super fast, pace, and the rail horse held gamely ( at 13:1 ), though one could make a case she was an overlay, and the winner sat a perfect inside trip behind the duelers, who finished second and third. She was nowhere near " well off the pace ".
It may not be the speedway we saw a week or so ago, and first races can be aberational, but I am not inclined to say the track is anything close to even.
That being said, I like a number of horses later in the card that aren't speed types. Why? Because I'm an idiot and a glutton for punishment.
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I guess she wasn't that far back, agreed. Thought the 2 was an overlay as well (these NYB fallowances on the inner are so often crapshoots of manytime-losers.)
If the track is playing fair, the 4, 6, and 12 have a big chance of knocking off this phony even money in the 4th. She's not much more than 1 or 2 lengths better than this group if the track doesn't carry her gate speed she showed in the last.